摘要
在分析短期负荷预测特征及其主要影响因素的基础上,比较了专家系统、神经网络、支持向量机这些新一代短期负荷预测方法和组合模型的优缺点,综述了近年来上述方法的应用及研究情况,重点介绍了支持向量机和组合模型两种预测方法,指出了智能化、组合模型、区间概率化是未来短期负荷预测方法研究的主要发展方向,并就短期负荷预测实用化提出了建议。
The advantages and disadvantages of the new methods such as expert system method, ANN, SVM and hybrid ensemble model are compared based on features of short - term load forecasting and the main effects, and the researches and application of the above- mentioned methods are summarized. Two kinds of technologies, SVM and hybrid ensemble model, are emphasized, and finally the future development of short - term load forecasting is described as intelligent technique, probabilistic forecasting and hybrid model, and some advices of practice in this field are presented.
出处
《四川电力技术》
2008年第1期61-65,共5页
Sichuan Electric Power Technology
关键词
电力系统
短期负荷预测
智能方法
组合模型
power system
short - term load forecasting
intelligent technique
hybrid ensemble model
作者简介
唐杰明（1968-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事电力市场及负荷预测研究。
