摘要
研究观众出行方式选择机理,对合理制定大型活动期间的交通组织方案,保障大型活动顺利开展具有重要意义。本文针对大型活动观众出行方式选择的影响因素进行探讨。首先,从宏观层面和微观层面分析了观众出行方式选择的影响因素;然后,基于个体效用最优理论,依据多项Logit模型原理,提出建立微观影响因素模型的方法。该方法所构造的模型可预测各个因素对观众出行方式选择的影响力大小及观众选择不同出行方式的概率。最后,通过实例阐述了模型的应用。模型的应用得到结论:收入水平、出行时耗、年龄分布是影响观众出行方式选择的重要因素。
It is important to research the mechanism of spectators＇ trip mode choice for making a reasonable traffic organizing project and ensuring a large special event proceeding smoothly. The paper discussed the influence factors of spectators＇ trip mode choice in large special events. Firstly, the influence factors were studied from macroscopic-level and microscopic-level. Then, based on the theory of individual utility-optimization and the principle of multinomial Logit model, a model of the mode trip choice was established. The model not only could forecast the influence of each factor, but also the probability of trip mode choice. Finally, the model＇ s application was given with an instance. From the instance it can be concluded that the income, the cost time and the age are the most important factors in the spectators＇ mode choice.
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2007年第4期77-83,共7页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
基金
江苏省科技攻关项目(BG2004037)
关键词
大型活动
观众
方式选择
影响因素
Large special events, spectators, trip mode choice, influence factors
作者简介
徐上（1983-），女，汉族，重庆人，东南大学交通学院硕士研究生，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。
