摘要
在计算网络的有效性时,MTBF和MTTR值是非常重要的参数,针对目前MTBF和MTTR的值主要是由设备厂商提供的,并且获得这些参数时有一定的困难,提出应用贝叶斯估计对网络部件的MTBF和MTTR进行求解,依据MTBF和MTTR的先验分布,利用贝叶斯公式求出它们的后验分布,然后利用贝叶斯估计得到MTBF和MTTR的估计值,在现场运用中更加实际。最后的实例根据实际现场中的运行数据,对通信电源的MTBF和MTTR进行了贝叶斯估计,并对经典估计和贝叶斯估计的误差进行了分析。
When computing the availability of network, MTBF and MTTR are very important parameter. Presently, MTBF and MTTR are offered by the equipment manufacturer, and acquiring these parameter is difficult. Solution of component＇s MTBF and MTTR by Bayes estimate is proposed in this paper.Based on the prior distribution of MTBF and MTTR, using the Bayes formula to acquire their posterior distribution, consequent, the value of MTBF and MTTR is acquired by Bayes estimation, and it is more actual in the field. Based on the actual data in the field, the MTBF and MTTR of communication power supply are computed by Bayes estimation, and the error between classical estimation and Bayes estimation is analyzed.
出处
《继电器》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第17期62-64,共3页
Relay
作者简介
高会生（1963-），男，博士研究生，教授，研究方向为通信网的管理和安全风险评估，信息处理；
赵建立（1982-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为电力通信网有效性评估。E-mail：shacheng227@126．com
