摘要
利用中尺度非静力MM5模式,在NCEP和JMA两种初始场方案下,对2005年严重影响我国的15号台风Khanun的登陆过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果的对比分析及其与观测的比较表明:台风对初始场十分敏感,JMA初始场方案在台风路径、强度和暴雨预报上较NCEP初始场方案都有显著改善。利用JMA方案高分辨模拟结果,对台风暴雨过程的螺旋度特征进行了诊断分析,结果表明:暴雨区上空螺旋度呈高层负值区,低层正中心分布,低层700hPa和850hPa螺旋度高值中心位置和强度演变对未来6h暴雨落区与强度有一定指示意义。
With the initial fields provided by NCEP and JMA, sensitivity experiments were conducted on the landfall typhoon Khanun which affected East China seriously by use of MM5. Comparisons between the experiments and against the observations indicate that numerical predictions of typhoon are sensitive. As shown in the experiments, predictions of the typhoon track, intensity and rainstorm with JMA initial field are better than those with NCEP initial field. Based on the successful simulation, the helicity was applied to diagnose the rainstorm process. The results show that the value of helicity is negative at upper level and a positive center is at lower level over the rainstorm position; the change of helicity at 700 hPa and 850 hPa can reflect the position and intensity of the rainstorm in the next 6 hours, therefore it provided more valuable information for the typhoon rainstorm forecasting.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第5期27-34,共8页
Marine Science Bulletin
作者简介
张建海（1977-）男，浙江人，硕士，从事天气分析和预报工作。
