摘要
利用柳州市近10 a（1995-2005年）9月上、中、下旬的平均温度、降水量,降雨日数、平均最低温度、平均湿度以及桂花盛花期的物候资料,采用逐步回归法分析各气象因子对桂花花期的影响,结果表明,影响桂花盛花期的主要气象因子是9月中旬平均气温9、月中旬平均最低气温与9月上旬平均最低气温,建立桂花盛花期预测模型,并对1995-2005年桂花盛花期出现日期进行回测,结果表明预测模型回测准确率高,可用于指导柳州市桂花花期的预报。
Factors affecting the osmanthus fragrans full flowering stage were studied on the basis of average temprature, rainfall, number of rain day, average minimum temperature and average relative humidity from the ten days to the last ten days of September during 1995 to 2005 with the stepwise regression. The results showed that the key factor affecting the osmanthus fragrans flowering were average temperature of the second decade of September,average minimum temperature of the second decade of September and average minimum temperature of the last decade of September, A predictive model was set up and was tested with the data from 1995 to 2005,the result indicated that the model had a highly accurate ratio,whlch can be used to guide the prediction of Osmanthus Fragrans flowering in Liuzhou.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2007年第27期8482-8482,8484,共2页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
桂花
花期预测
逐步回归
Osmanthus Fragrans
Prediction of flower stage
Stepwise regression
作者简介
吴炫柯（1979-），男，广西柳州人，硕士，助理工程师，从事应用气象研究工作。
