摘要
收集整理1949—2003年新疆耕地、人口与粮食等资料,定量分析耕地的数量变化、质量状况。用线性回归法预测人口变化趋势。对粮食生产与其影响因素进行灰色关联分析,分析表明粮食单产、有效灌溉面积对粮食产量的影响最大,农业现代化的影响需要进一步加大,粮食收购价格指数对粮食生产不会有更大的影响。提出增加科技投入提高单产、发展节水农业等挖掘耕地潜力增加粮食产量的途径。为新疆今后农业发展决策提供科学依据。
Relations among cultivated land, population and grain yield in Xinjiang during the past 53 years were discussed based on statistical and survey data. It was found that ①cuhivation area fluctuated and the trend of cultivated land loss per capita started from 1961 ;②The actual population density is about 229 persons per square kilometres, and the number of population will increase to 2.1 × 10^7 in 2010 ;③Total grain yield and grain yield per capital have increased in a fluctuant way since 1949;③Groin yield per unit, effective irrigated area have more effects on total grain yield based on gray incidence analysis ; ⑤The effect of agro - modernization needs to be increased , grain buying index will not have more effect on total grain yield. Moreover , countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of grain production were discussed such as relying on scientific progress tO increase yield grain per unit, developing wate - saving agriculture. This research provided a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Xinjiang.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第11期54-58,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院知识创新项目"新疆近50年LUCC与绿洲和城镇化研究(KZCX3-SW-327-04)资助
关键词
灰色关联分析
耕地
粮食
新疆
gray incidence analysis
cultivation area
grain yield
Xinjiang
作者简介
蔡文春（1975-），女，甘肃武威人，硕士，讲师，研究方向为区域经济与区域规划。E-mail：spring936@126．com
