摘要
春末夏初少雨是青藏高原东侧天气气候的一种重要现象。它对高原东侧广大地区的农业影响很大。此时正值春麦拔节到乳熟的需水关键期,因此降水的多少决定着产量的高低。根据文献[1]的分析,甘肃中部5—6月的降水量与定西地区夏田单产的相关系数为0.478,信度为0.05。我们曾计算过古浪县5—6月降水量与春小麦产量之间的相关系数为0.668,信度高达0.001。这些说明产量在很大程度上取决于降水的多少,因此春末夏初降水的预报,一向是我省广大台站的重要课题。本文介绍了我们近年业务预报方法的建立和应用。
Using the multi-yearly mean data of 500 hPa height and their departure from the normal during the period of from May to June of 1951-1988 and the departure data of 6 representative station temperature and 14 representative station rainfall in Gansu Province at the same period, the intercomparisons of antecedent period circulations on 500 hPa for 5 typical drought and wet years in Gansu Province in late spring and early summer were firstly made. Based on the intercomparisons, the multi-regression equations for rainfall anomaly forecast were found. The trial forecast in late spring and early summer in 1989 show the rainfall anomaly forecast skill is quite good.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第4期443-446,共4页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
干旱
环流
回归方程
降水量
预报
Height over key areas
NW flow index
Regression equation
Middle-Asia ridge
