摘要
在北京市的发展规划中,经济增长和劳动力配置起着关键作用。经济增长和产业技术特点决定劳动力需求,人口自然增长率和人口净迁入规模决定劳动力供给。本文在对北京市未来25年经济增长的预测基础上,利用三种方法预测了劳动力供给和需求的变动趋势,并根据高、中、低三种方案预测北京市未来25年劳动力市场将逐渐由供给充足向供给紧张的状况转变,同时提示了对策建议。
The economic growth and labor force play an important role in Beijing's development programming.Economic and industrial technique decides labor demand,and the natural growth rate of population and net immigration size decide labor supply.The article forecast Beijing's economic growth during the next 25 years,and uses three kinds of methods to forecast the trends of labor supply and labor demand.On the basis of three kinds of solutions,the suthor found that that the labor market of Beijing would change from surplus supply to surplus demand.
出处
《北京社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期32-37,共6页
Social Sciences of Beijing
作者简介
周祝平（1975-），男，江西宜春人，中国人民大学社会与人口学院讲师。
