摘要
对1980-2003年长治市冰雹天气的气候背景进行了统计分析,明确了冰雹发生的时空尺度,地理分布,月、年际变化,冰雹发源地以及冰雹主要影响路径;利用500 hPa天气图,给出了降雹的天气形势及高空冷空气的活动路径;分析了冰雹天气的0℃层高度、-20℃层高度、水汽条件和稳定度等参数;采用最优子集回归方法对850 hPa和500 hPa高空指标站进行了选取,分析了这些站点及本站14时(压、温、湿、风)的气象要素,建立了综合性预报模型。
This paper statistically analyzes climatic background of hail weather in Changzhi City during 1980 - 2003, clarifies hail＇s spatiotemporal dimension, geographic distribution, yearly and monthly change and source, and its main influencing route. Using the synoptic chart of 500 hPa, the weather situation of hailfall and the moving path of cold air in high altitude are presented. The height of layers with 0℃ and 20℃ temperature, the water vapor condition and the stability for hail weather are analyzed. The stations for 850 hPa and 500 hPa high altitude indices are chosen with optimal subset regressive technology. Meteorological factors such as air pressure, temperature, humidity and wind at 14：00 from these stations and from Changzhi Station are analyzed and an integrated forecast model is established.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期34-39,共6页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
长治市星火科技项目([2006]27)
关键词
冰雹
气候特征
天气形势
预报参数
预报模型
hail
climate characteristic
weather situation
forecast parameter
forecast model
作者简介
王正旺（1956-），男，高级工程师，主要从事天气预报分析研究．E-mail：wzwpzt@sohu．com
