摘要
目的采用三种基数估计方法对广东省某地吸毒人群的规模进行估计,力图找到一种经济、方便、快捷和相对准确的基数估计方法。方法采用简易乘数法、捕获-再捕获法、公安人员定性估计的方法对该地的吸毒人群规模进行估计。结果公安人员定性估计该地吸毒人群数量为15 900人,简易乘数法估计该地吸毒人群数量为15 745-19 614人,捕获-再捕获法估计该地吸毒人群数量为36 210-41 902人。三种不同方法估计数的中位数为18 540人。结论该地吸毒人群规模估计数为18 540人。简易乘数法是一种经济、简便、可行的基数估计方法,且能获得一个较为准确的估计数。
Objective To find out a cost effective, convenient, simple and accurate method to estimate the population size of drug users in a prefecture in Guangdong province, by applying multiple approaches. Methods Simplified multiplier method, capture-recapture method, and qualitative estimate by police were used to estimate the population size of drug users. Resnlts The size of drug user in this prefecture was 15 900 as estimated by police, 15 745 to 19 614 by using the simplified multiplier and 36 210 to 41 902 by using the capture-recapture method, with a median of 18 540. Conclusion The estimated size of drug users in this prefecture is 18 540 persons. It seems that the simplified multiplier method is a rapid and practical approach for the estimation of the size of drug users.
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
2007年第1期31-32,49,共3页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
关键词
吸毒者
基数估计
乘数法
捕获-再捕获法
Drug user
Estimation of population size
Multiplier method
Capture-recapture method
作者简介
李艳（1974-），女，湖北省仙桃市人，主管医师，硕士，从事艾滋病流行病学研究。
