摘要
为提高山西暴雨预报能力，在引进颜宏等人设计的复杂地形条件下嵌套细网格模式（简称CTFM模式）的基础上，对其进行了某些调整，即：中心点位置的改动；取水汽辐合量M为Mt＝Mtl＋Mtm＝1．75Mtl；湿润因子也按Anthes积云对流参数化方案取值，并将郭晓岚和Anthes两方案结合起来使用，企图建立适用于山西暴雨预报的数值预报系统。使用该系统，对1993年山西暴雨个例进行了数值模拟，发现该系统对雨量及天气过程的模拟结果令人满意。又于1994年6月27日─—8月5日进行了连续40天的准业务试验，以检验模式对山西暴雨预报能力。试验表明，本系统对此期间5次暴雨过程均有反映，其中四次位置误差均在1个格距以内（平均误差为0．78个格距），量值绝对平均误差为11．0mm，明显优于在业务预报中值班员经常参考的日本模式预报结果，这表明本系统预报结果对暴雨预报具有一定的指导意义。
In order to improve the ability of predicting the heavy rainfall of ShanXi, on the basis of introduced nested fine-mesh model over the complex topography which was designed by YanHong etc. (for short: CTFM), a few adjustments have been made: the center position is changed ; the moisture convergence Mt=Mtl+Mtm= 1. 75 Mtl is taken ; the factor b of increasing humidity is chosen according to Anthes's scheme of the cumulus parameterization, so that the Kuo's scheme is combined with Anthes's scheme of the cumulus parameterization.Finally, the system of the heavy rainfall forecast of ShanXi has been formed. Using the system, a numerical simulation for the heavy rainfall event of 1993 in ShanXi has been made.The simulating results of rainfall and synoptic systems are more reasonable. In order to check the forecasting ability of this system, quasivocational exercises have been done continually during a period from 27 June to 5 August 1994. Five heavy rainfall events, which occurred during this peried,were forecasted by the system. The results showed the mean position error of four heavy rainfall events is less than one mesh(0. 78 mesh), the mean quantity error of four rainfall events is 11. 0 mm. These are far better than Japan's in ShanXi. It is suggested that the system of the heavy rainfall numerical forecast of shanxi can be used to predict heavy rainfall.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第3期277-284,共8页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
山西省科委"8.5"课题!<山西暴雨科学试验与预报技术研究>
关键词
降水预报
暴雨
预报能力
数值模式
CTFM模式
heavy rainfall numerical forecast
numerical model
the check to the heavy rainfall prediction
