摘要
针对水利工程投资的风险性、不确定性等特点,应用实物期权的理论与方法,研究不确定条件下的水利工程投资决策中的项目柔性问题。以大型输水工程为例,建立基于实物期权的输水工程投资的柔性决策模型,并通过数值结果综合分析各个不确定条件因素对项目柔性以及投资决策的影响,为水利工程投资方案的决策提供了一个新思路和方法。
With regard to the characteristics of investment into water resources projects,the theory and method of real option are employed to study flexible problems in decision-making of investment into water resources projects under the condition of uncertainty.Take a large water transfer project as an example,the flexible decision-making model based on real option is established.Effect of various uncertain factors on the flexibility of projects and their decision-making are analyzed by use of numerical analysis.A new method is thus provided.
出处
《水利经济》
2007年第1期5-7,共3页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(06BJY026)
关键词
实物期权
水利工程投资
柔性
决策
real option
investment into water resources project
flexibility
decision-making
作者简介
张婕（1980-），女，江苏宿迁人，博士研究生，从事管理科学与工程研究。
