摘要
采用比较膨化相关法及逐步回归对福建龙眼主产地的鲤城区（原泉州市）３２ａ（１９６１－１９９２年）的生产统计及气象资料进行分析，筛选出１６个与龙眼气象产率关系密切的气象因子，并结合１０ａ滑动相关分析对各因子与龙眼产量的关系进行分析讨论．依据岭回归系数及按生育期将筛选出的因子组成为７个生育期气象综合因子，应用主成分分析因子负荷率计算方法得出这些因子对龙眼气象产率的负荷率依次为：（１）夏梢生长期（０．３４５９）＞（２）花期（０．２０９５）＞（３）秋梢生长期（０．０８５０）＞（４）花穗形态迅速分化期（０．０８３２）＞（５）花芽生理分化期（０．０７１１）＞（６）前期生理落果期（０．０５４３）＞（７）第二次生理落果期（０．０２１８）．其中夏梢及秋梢结果母枝或结果母枝基枝生长期负荷率之和约占总负荷率的５０％。
Sixteen factors, which closely correlated with meteorological yield ratio of longan were selected from productive statistics and analysis of meteorological information in Licheng District(former Quanzhou City), main longan production areas of Fujian Province in 32 years (1961-1992) by the comparative expansion factor and stepwise regression method. The relationship between these factors and longan yields was discussed by the ten year running correlation analysis. Seven main factors were selected based on ridge regressive coefficients and growing period, and the loading ratios of longan meteorological yield ratios were calculated by principal components, factor loading ratios were:(1)summer shoot growth periods(0.3459)>(2)blooming phase(0.2095)>(3)autumn shoot growth period(0.0850)>(4)apid differentiation period of flower bud (0.0832) >(5)physiological differentiation period of flower bud(0.0711)>(6)previous physiological fruit drop phase(0.[KG-4]0543)>(7)the second physiological fruit drop phase(0.0218). Of which, the loading ratio of growing periods of mother fruiting shoot or based fruiting shoot in summer or autumn has a greatly effect on the longan yield in the next year, their loading ratio accounted for the 50% of the total.
出处
《福建农业大学学报》
CSCD
1996年第4期494-499,共6页
Journal of Fujian Agricultural University
基金
福建省科委基金
关键词
龙眼
气象产率
气象因子
膨化相关法
逐步回归
longan
meteorological yield ratio
meteorological factor
comparative expansion factor
stepwise regression
ridge regression
factor loading ratio
