摘要
自20世纪90年代末期以来,我国重工业发展迅猛,各界普遍认为我国已再次进入了重工业化阶段,但关于重工业的发展对我国就业影响的看法,却存在一些争论。本文首先从“技术中性”的理论角度分析了重工业发展对就业影响的作用机制和过程,将这种影响分为“替代效应”和“收入效应”,然后构造两个模型并利用有关数据进行回归拟合以检验这两个效应作用程度。回归结果表明,“替代效应”会提高全社会的资本-劳动比,被证明是一种“索洛技术中性”的技术进步;而“收入效应”会提高全社会的就业量,且作用程度超过了“替代效应”,从而使得整个社会的就业量不但没有减少反而还增加了。
In this paper, we analyzed the impact of re-heavy- industrialization on employment from the vision of ＂technology - neutral＂ theory at first. We divided this impact into two categories： one is ＂replacement effect＂, the other is ＂income effect＂ . Then we constructed two models based on the theory of ＂technologyneutral＂, and contrasted these two effects with the support of empirical data. The results showed that the ＂replacement effect＂ of the technological progress on employment will improve the capital - labour ratio of the whole country~ so it belongs to the technological progress of ＂Solow technology neutral＂; and the ＂income effect＂ will increase the employment of the whole society and this impact was so strongly that the employment of the whole country did not reduce but increased instead.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第12期82-92,共11页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
重新重工业化
就业
技术中性
Re - heavy - industrialization
Employment
Technology - neutral Theory
