摘要
在综合考虑截流过程的水文及水力不确定性因素的基础上,建立了截流风险数学分析模型,该模型包括天然来流量和分流建筑物泄流能力、龙口泄流流量、戗堤渗流流量的模拟。通过分析模型中存在的不确定性因素,构建了相应的概率模型及其抽样公式。采用Monte-Carlo方法对模型进行随机抽样,通过统计分析,获得截流风险率的估计值。最后,采用中心极限定理,依据模拟的次数,给出截流风险率估计值的绝对误差和置信度。通过实例计算分析,验证了所建的模型正确合理。
Considering hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors during river closure, a mathematical model of risk analysis about river closure is built up. It includes simulation models of natural inflow, diversion construction discharge, closure gap discharge and dyke seepage flow. By analyzing uncertain factors existing in the model, relevant probability models and sampling formulas are given. Then Monte-Carlo method is applied to model sampling. Risk probability of river closure is acquired by sufficient times of sampling. Using central limit theorem, absolute error and confidence level of risk probability are provided according to simulation running times. In the end, one example is studied to verify the rationality of the method and model.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第10期1212-1216,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家杰出青年科学基金(5052592)
国家自然科学基金委员会基金
二滩水电开发有限责任公司雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金(50539120)
作者简介
钟登华（1963-），男，江西赣州人，博士，教授，主要从事为水利水电工程施工系统分析与优化研究。E-mail：dzhong@tju．edu．cn
