摘要
为在铁路客运量预测中消除季节性变化的影响,采用平均数季节指数法、移动平均趋势剔除法、最小平方趋势剔除法对2002年—2004年的铁路客运量计算季节指数,通过误差分析,说明最小平方趋势剔除法能更好地反映运量的季节变动状况,是预测的最佳选择方案。
In order to eliminate the influence of seasonal factors on the forecast of passenger traffic volume, the method of average seasonal index, moving average tendency outlier and least square tendency outlier are employed to calculate the seasonal index of railway passenger traffic volume from 2002 to 2004. Through error analysis, the essay indicates that the outlier method of least square tendency is better in reflecting seasonal change status of traffic volume, and is the best choice for the forecast.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2006年第7期78-80,共3页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
铁路
客运量
预测
季节指数
研究
railway
passenger volume
forecast
seasonal index
research
