摘要
在分析中国热带气旋灾害影响及时空分布的基础上，计算得出近４０年西北太平洋年平均热带气旋发生总数和其中台风发生数与海表温度，以及与年平均登陆中国热带气旋总数和其中台风登陆数长趋势变化之间的相互关系，并据此估算了全球变暖后中国热带气旋灾害的可能变化趋势。结果表明，若至２０５０年前后全球变暖引起西北太平洋海表温度升高１℃，则在中国登陆热带气旋总数年平均将比现状增加６５％，其中年平均登陆台风数将可能增加５８％左右。
Based on the analysis of the affection and distribution characteristics of tropical cyclones disaster in China,monthly sea surface temperature(SST),the frequencies of tropical cyclones in Northwest Pacific and the landing frequencies of tropical cyclones in China for the 40-year period 1951-1990 are calculated,and the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones disaster in China are estimated.The analytical results show that,in recent 40 years,there are not only good nonlinear relationship between the frequencies of total tropical cyclones,typhoon in China and SST in Northwest Pacific,but also good linear correlation between the frequencies of total tropical cyclones,typhoon in them in Northwest Pacific and landing frequencies in China.When sea surface temperature in Northwest Pacific rises 1℃ in 2050 caused by golbal warming,the annual landing frequencies of total tropical cyclones and typhoon in them in China would increase 65% and 58% respectively,and the economic loss of this disaster might increase about 71% ignoring future socioeconomic development and increased intensity of disaster.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1996年第2期47-55,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
