摘要
针对广州市经济高速发展对能源需求与供给的紧张局面，分析了广州市能源供需现状及存在的问题．运用部门分析法、时间序列法对广州市2005～2010年的能源需求进行预测，得出了2010年能源总需求的预测值为4534．7×100t标准煤，能源供需差额为4500×100t标准煤．根据实证分析，结合全国和广东省能源供应和消费的大环境，认为广州市未来的能源发展战略应该包括以下要点：①立足于国家的整体能源发展规划即依靠“西电东送”、三峡的并网水电、核电和新能源；②停止建立或扩充目前污染较重、能耗物耗较高且布局在广州夏季上风方向上的黄埔火力发电厂；③不应该完全依靠广东的贫困山区的煤炭和小水电但可以充分发挥其资源潜力．
This paper aims at the tense situation of energy demand and supply and analysis the current situation and problems of energy supply and demand in Guangzhou. We predict total demand of energy which will be 4 534.7× 10^4t of standard coal in 2010 by using the department analysis method and sequence method, and the balance between supply and demand of energy will be 45 000 thousand tons of standard coal. From the primary conclusions of our empirical analysis and together with the overall environment of energy in Guangdong and China, we think the development strategies of energy in Guangzhou in the future should involve several main points as following： ① Energy of Guangzhou should base on the overall energy development programming of China and that is, it should depend on the ＂transmission of electricity from the western to the eastern region＂, power incorporation of Sanxia, power generated of water energy, nuclear power and new resource. ②Stop setting up or expending the natural monopoly and resource oriented Huangpu thermal power plant located in the windward direction of summer of Guangzhou which has serious pollution and consumes large quantities of energy. ③It should not absolutely depend on the coal of the poor mountainous region of Guangdong and small power station and can make full use of the resource potential.
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期620-623,共4页
Environmental Science
基金
国家社会科学基金'九五'重点项目(96AJB042)
中山大学广东发展研究院人文社会科学研究项目(99XA790011)
广东省自然科学基金项目(974083)
关键词
广州
能源需求
能源供给
能源结构
发展预测
Guangzhou City
energy supply and demand
energy structure
trend prediction of energy
作者简介
钟晓青（1962～），男．博士，副教授，主要研究方向为生态经薪，E-mail：ls102@zsu．edu．cn
