摘要
为建立春油菜菌核病流行预测模型,利用逐步回归分析和通径分析研究1991-1998年春油菜不同生育期各气象因子与菌核病发病率间的关系,结果表明春油菜花期的气象因子对菌核病茎部发病率影响最大,其中6月下旬平均气温和7月中旬降水量是关键因子。利用花期各气象因子建立了春油菜菌核病茎部发病率回归模拟方程为:Y=-34.230056+0.405018X1-8.759353X2+9.274252X3+0.024760X4+0.1893376X5+2.835423X6同时组建了神经网络模拟模型,得到了较好的预测效果。
In order to establish the predicting model of the Sclerotinia sclerotiorum on the spring oilseed rape, the meteorological factors in different stages of the spring rape were studied with the stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that the meteorological factors at flowering stage were the most important ones affecting this stem disease, with air temperature of the last ten days in June and the precipitation of the middle ten days in July were the key factors. Using these meteorological factors, the stepwise regression equation and BP-ANN model for the prediction of the disease were established and validated.
出处
《中国油料作物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期89-91,94,共4页
Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences
基金
黑龙江省农垦总局科技攻关项目
关键词
春油菜
菌核病
预测
Spring oilseed rape
Sclerotinia sclerotiorum
Prediction
作者简介
陈士华（1972-），女，硕士，从事植物病理学与分子生物学研究（email：ehenshihual@yahoo．com．cn）。
