摘要
应用模糊可变方法对电力负荷进行了预测。利用负荷与三大产业的生产总值的历史数据构造指标集,并应用差异函数建立电力负荷预测模型。该方法能够科学、合理地确定与电力负荷相关的各个研究指标处于级别区间的相对隶属函数,并根据指标重要性进行二元比较与量化,从而合理地确定各个指标的权重,得出电力负荷预测的级别特征值。实例证明,方法是合理的。
A new power load prediction model, the variable fuzzy sets method, is presented. The historical data are adopted to construct indexes sets and solve the prediction model. The method can scientifically and reasonably determine relative membership functions of disquisitive indexes at level interval that relating to power load, also it can fully use one's experience and knowledge, qualitative and quantitative information of index system to obtain weights of indexes for power load prediction operation. The numerical example has shown that the proposed method is feasible and effective, and the evaluation results are reasonable.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2005年第5期29-31,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(59149002)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(9014102)
关键词
负荷预测
模糊可变集合
差异函数
级别特征值
load prediction
variable fuzzy sets
difference function
rank feature value
作者简介
陈守煜（1930-）,男,教授、博士生导师,研究方向为水利水电工程、水文水资源、模糊系统与数学,E-mail：chensydlut@sina.com
