摘要
对陕西省50多年统计资料的分析认为,陕西省当前的人口-粮食-耕地系统处于“系统相悖”的状态:耕地人口密度大大超过其承载力;人均粮食占有量不足,粮食供给紧张;加之人口老龄化问题,使系统的矛盾更为复杂化。依据预测理论,构建出系统相关因子模型,对该系统未来30a的耦合态势进行了预测。结果表明,如果按照传统的经济增长模式发展下去,耕地安全、粮食安全、生态安全问题将会并发,严重影响区域的可持续发展。作者针对性地提出了该生态经济系统协调发展的对策与建议。
Based on the statistical data in Shannxi Province in the past half century, the coupling trends of population-farmland-grain system are analyzed. It is thought that the population density on farmland has exceeded its carrying capacity, the grain per capita is insufficient and the grain supply is restrained, and the aging population makes the systematic contradiction even more complicated. The trends of the system in the coming 30 years are forecasted by means Of models. The prediction results show that the farmland scarcity, grain deficiency and eco-environmental degradation will emerge all together if the system is continued with the traditional development model. Finally, the strategic countermeasures for the harmonious development of ecological-economic system are put forward.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期217-221,共5页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2001SM27)
关键词
人口-耕地-粮食系统
数学模型
预测
对策
陕西省
population-farmland-grain system
model
predietion
countermeasures
Shaanxi Province
作者简介
马彩虹（1974—）,女,宁夏西吉人,硕士研究生,研究方向为环境退化与治理。 E-mail：mchyanni@yahoo.com.cn。
