摘要
上海人口增长的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的拓展潜力。区域人口承载能力研究,所面对的是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会构成的复杂巨系统,必须充分重视研究对象的系统属性。本文在构建区域人口承载能力系统框架的基础上,利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,并对上海在不同发展阶段,与不同标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析。
The Target of population growth planning in Shanghai is fundamentally determined by the potential population carrying capacity of the city. The research of region population carrying capacity is based on the study of a large and complicated system consisting of population, resources, environment, economy and society, thus it is necessary to pay full attention to the property of system. This paper build up a frame of region population carrying capacity system and a principal component model of multi - variables, and calculates Shanghai＇s population carrying capacity corresponding to different standards of the variables in different development stages.
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2005年第3期44-50,共7页
South China Population
关键词
人口承载能力
多因素分析
上海
Population carrying capacity
Multi - variables analysis
Shanghai
作者简介
彭希哲（1954-），男，江苏苏州人，复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院院长、教授，博士生导师，研究方向：人口与发展经济学，公共政策。
