摘要
对1971-1999年浙江省梅雨的空间分布进行客观分型,研究各种雨型前期500hPa高度场的相应变化特征,初步提示历年梅雨雨型与其前期高空环流中预兆因子的关系。结果表明,前期冬季春季环流变化特征的异同是导致梅雨型各自特点的重要原因。通过对3种梅雨型一些重要环流前兆因子的分析研究,发现前冬500hPa高度场上低纬度为正异常或负异常是导致次年浙江省梅雨期北部少梅或多梅的最显著的前兆,而春季南亚到西太平洋的负距平区发展强弱情况则是预报该年浙江省西南部是否出现少梅的重要判据之一。
The geographic distribution of the precipitation types during the Mei-yu period th Zhejiang Province from 1971 to I999 is analyzed, and the characteristics of each previous Mei-yu precipitation type＇s changes at 500 hPa height field are studied, which finds the basic relationship between each Mei-yu precipitation type and some foreboding factors of the global circulation in each year. The results showed that the different and same characteristics of the previous global circulation＇s changes in winter and spring are the important reasons, which result in the Mei-yu precipitation types＇ respective characteristics. By analyzing some key factors dominating in earlier global circulation in three Meiyu precipitation types, it is found that the positive or negative abnormities are the most pronounced premonitors which lead less or more precipitation in the northern part of Zhejiang Province during the Mei-yu period .On the other hand. it is one of the significant criterions that the extensity of the
negative anomaly zone from southern Asia to the western Pacific in spring, which might predict the precipitation amount of meiyu in the southwestem Zhejiang Province.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
2005年第8期24-28,共5页
Science & Technology Review
基金
浙江省重大科研项目(991103364)
浙江省科研项目(2004C33082)
关键词
相似系数.系统聚类.梅雨雨型.环流前兆因子
similar coefficient, systematic clustering, precipitation type during the Mei-yu period, forboding factor in the global circulation
作者简介
薛根元，男，杭州市劳动路旧仁和署38号浙江省气象局，高级工程师，主要从事天气动力学与气候学研究；E-mail：xgy0129@yahoo.com.cn
