摘要
针对ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测估计值稳定性差等问题，从灰色建模基本要求出发，给出了一种新的ＧＭ（１，１）模型参数估计方法。与原方法相比，新方法参数估计值稳定性强，误差小，达到了理想的预测效果。
In analysing the forecast,solution of GM(1,1)model’s curve often deviates from the curve of statistical figures beyond the tolerance;it is not favorable.The prohlem is the parameter-estimated calculation can not meet the basic re-(quest of gray system for setting model.This paper propoxes a new calculation method,it bases on the basic request of gray system,that may get the most sta- ble parameter estimation of GM(1,1)model and its fluctuation of forecast val- ue is within the allowable limit of may statistical figure. Thus the ideal forecast solution come around.
出处
《长春邮电学院学报》
1995年第3期54-58,共5页
Journal of Changchun Post and Telecommunication Institute
关键词
参数估计
GM模型
灰色系统
Gray system theory
Parameter estimations
Fitting
Error
