摘要
根据灰色系统理论得出作物生育期降雨序列的GM(1,1)微分方程,建立了作物生育期降雨量的灰色自记忆预测模型.将该模型应用于冬小麦和玉米生育期降雨量拟合及预测,结果表明,这种基于灰色微分方程又利用了多个观测往值信息的预测模型具有较高的计算精度.
GM(1,1)differential equation of the precipitation time series of crop growth period was attained based on grey theory. The self-memory grey model for predicting precipitation of crop growth period was established; and the fitting and forecast for the precipitation of growth period of winter wheat and corn were performed with this model. The results show that the model based on differential equation as well as including historical information has the advantage of high accuracy.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期19-21,53,共4页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家863计划项目(编号:2002AA2Z4311).
关键词
作物生育期降雨量
灰色微分方程
自记忆预测模型
precipitation time series of crop growth period
grey differential equation
self-memory prediction model
