Assimilation and Simulation of Typhoon Rusa (2002) Using the WRF System 被引量：20

Assimilation and Simulation of Typhoon Rusa (2002) Using the WRF System

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摘要 Using the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3DVAR and the WRF model, numerical experiments are conducted for the initialization and simulation of typhoon Rusa (2002). The observational data used in the WRF 3DVAR are conventional Global Telecommunications System (GTS) data and Korean Automatic Weather Station (AWS) surface observations. The Background Error Statistics (BES) via the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method has two different resolutions, that is, a 210-km horizontal grid space from the NCEP global model and a 10-km horizontal resolution from Korean operational forecasts. To improve the performance of the WRF simulation initialized from the WRF 3DVAR analyses, the scale-lengths used in the horizontal background error covariances via recursive filter are tuned in terms of the WRF 3DVAR control variables, streamfunction, velocity potential, unbalanced pressure and specific humidity. The experiments with respect to different background error statistics and different observational data indicate that the subsequent 24-h the WRF model forecasts of typhoon Rusa's track and precipitation are significantly impacted upon the initial fields. Assimilation of the AWS data with the tuned background error statistics obtains improved predictions of the typhoon track and its precipitation. Using the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3DVAR and the WRF model, numerical experiments are conducted for the initialization and simulation of typhoon Rusa (2002). The observational data used in the WRF 3DVAR are conventional Global Telecommunications System (GTS) data and Korean Automatic Weather Station (AWS) surface observations. The Background Error Statistics (BES) via the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method has two different resolutions, that is, a 210-km horizontal grid space from the NCEP global model and a 10-km horizontal resolution from Korean operational forecasts. To improve the performance of the WRF simulation initialized from the WRF 3DVAR analyses, the scale-lengths used in the horizontal background error covariances via recursive filter are tuned in terms of the WRF 3DVAR control variables, streamfunction, velocity potential, unbalanced pressure and specific humidity. The experiments with respect to different background error statistics and different observational data indicate that the subsequent 24-h the WRF model forecasts of typhoon Rusa's track and precipitation are significantly impacted upon the initial fields. Assimilation of the AWS data with the tuned background error statistics obtains improved predictions of the typhoon track and its precipitation.

作者顾建峰 QingnongXIAO Ying-HwaKUO DaleM.BARKER 薛纪善马晓星

机构地区 ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences ShanghaiWeatherForecastCenter

出处《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第3期415-427,共13页 大气科学进展（英文版）

关键词 3DVAR data assimilation background error statistics numerical simulation TYPHOON 3DVAR, data assimilation, background error statistics, numerical simulation, typhoon

分类号 P444 [天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

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