摘要
J曲线效应理论是探讨汇率变动影响出口贸易的重要理论之一,通过构建计量经济学模型对人民币汇率变动影响我国农产品出口贸易进行实证研究,结果表明该理论在人民币汇率影响我国农产品出口贸易方面得到了证实。研究还进一步显示我国农产品出口与当年人民币的实际有效汇率显著地呈反向相关关系,且与前2年的人民币名义汇率变动的反向相关程度小于当年的实际有效汇率。此外,出口退税率和技术性贸易壁垒对农产品的出口贸易也产生了较大的影响。
s:J-Curve Effect Theory is an important theory of researching exchange rate's influence on export. This dissertation is an empirical study on the RMB's exchange rate influence on China's agri-products export mainly through constructing econometric model. The result testifies the theory's validity in the RMB's exchange rates' influence on China agri-products export. The study also indicates that the export of China agri- products is inversely related to RMB's current Real Effective Exchange Rate, and its reverse relativity to the RMB Nominal Rate variation is less than the then Real Effective Exchange Rate. Besides, export drawbacsk and technical trade barriers also severely affect China's agri-products' exports.
出处
《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2005年第1期12-17,共6页
Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
关键词
人民币汇率
农产品出口
技术性贸易壁垒
RMB's exchange rate
agri-products' export
Technical Trade Barrier
