摘要
本文提出了用灰色系统理论进行中长期城市需水预测的建模方法。通过对有限的原始用水量数据的生成处理,把有起伏性的原始序列变成规律性强的序列,从而建立城市需水预测的灰色模型。经实际算例校核证明,利有 GM(1,1)及其修正模型进行预测,可以大大提高中长期城市需水预测的精度,而且方法简捷实用。
This paper discusses a modeling process which is based on grey system theory used in long-medium term urban water demand forecast.Though generating-operation of original data,we can turn the original date sequence which is undu- lating into the stronger orderliness sequence,so a grey dynamic model for the forecasting of water demand is built.Then processing the forecasting by using GM(1,1) model and GM(1,1) error-rectifying model,we can greatly enhance the forecasting precision of urban water demand forecast.By analyzing an actual example,we can find that the model is simple,practical,and high precision.
关键词
灰色系统
需水量
预测
Grey system
Water demand
Forecasting method
