摘要
城市燃气负荷与调峰是连接天然气供气系统上游与下游的关键问题,是实现系统优化调度和智能控 制的基础,加之我国城市天然气供应呈现快速发展的趋势,燃气负荷预测已经成为一种迫切需求的实用技术。为 此,以时间序列分析理论为指导,根据燃气负荷变化的复杂性、多样性和特殊性,将有关负荷基础理论与应用方面 的研究系统化,建立了由负荷及相关资料调查、负荷工况分析、负荷变化规律、负荷预测、预测方法与预测模型和工 程应用等六大模块构成的城市燃气负荷预测系统体系,以使燃气负荷这一领域的研究内容、研究方法和研究目标 逐渐向系统化和高科技化发展,为丰富和完善天然气输气理论和技术奠定了重要的基础,有助于该领域的研究初 步形成理论及从技术到实用的转化,并提供了目前燃气负荷预测能够达到的精度范围。
The load and peak-shaving of city gas are the key problems connecting the upstream with the down-stream of gas delivering system and the ground to realize the optimized dispatch and the intelligent control for the system. As city gas delivery increases rapidly, the gas load forecasting has become an urgent requiring technology. So, based on the theory of time series analysis, according to the complexity, diversity and particularity of city gas load change, the forecasting system of city gas load with six modules, including investigation for load and other relevant information; analysis of gas load mode; load changing law; load forecasting; forecasting method and model; and engineering application, is established to make the study in the field of gas load, including the research contents, means and goals, gradually go to systematization and high-tech development, which builds the important foundations for enriching and improving the theory and technology of gas delivery, and is helpful to convert the theory and technology formed initially in the field into the practice. Meanwhile, it is introduced the accuracy the gas load forecasting can reach at present.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期155-157,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金(50376014)
北京市"供热
供燃气
通风及空调工程"重点实验室资助项目
哈尔滨市青年科学研究基金(2003AFXXJO22)资助项目。~~
关键词
城市燃气
负荷预测
智能控制
时间序列分析
Control systems
Forecasting
Information analysis
Intelligent control
Laws and legislation
Natural gas
Technology transfer
Urban planning
