摘要
目的 分析海南省人口负担系数的变化特点及影响因素。方法 用海南省 1990和 2 0 0 0两次人口普查的负担少年儿童系数、负担老年系数、总负担系数进行对比分析 ,并以出生率、死亡率、国民生产总值指数及人均国民生产总值指数为自变量进行逐步回归分析。结果 10年间 ,负担少年儿童系数下降了 14 12 % ,负担老年系数上升了 0 85 % ,总负担系数下降了 13 2 7%。负担少年儿童系数和总负担系数单调平行下降 ,负担老年系数单调缓慢上升。海南省的各项负担系数都不同程度的高于全国同期水平。逐步回归分析揭示 :负担少年儿童系数仅受出生率影响 (b =1 80 87,r =0 89) ;负担老年系数仅受人均国民生产总值指数影响 (b =0 0 0 5 4,r =0 73 ) ;总负担系数仅受出生率影响 (b =1 6878,r=0 83 )。结论 海南省的总负担系数还有下降空间。人口老化在近期内不会对海南省的社会经济造成重大压力。
Objective The purpose of the article is to explore the profile and p ossibly related factors of dependency ratios in Hainan Province. Methods Three dependency ratios,dependency ratio of children below age 15 years,dependen cy ratio of elderly people over 64 years and the total dependency ratio,between 1990 and 2000 censuses of Hainan Province were compared.Dependency ratios were r egressed with birth rates,death rates,in dices of gross domestic product,indices of mean gross domestic product per person. Results During the period between 1 990 and 2000 years,the dependency ratio of children declined 14.12%.That of el derly increased 0.85%,The total dependency ratio declined 13.27%.The curve of dependency ratio of children parallels with that of the total dependency ratio. The dependency ratios of elderly increased monotonously.All the three dependenc y ratios of Hainan Province are higher in value than nationwide levels indiffe rent degrees respectively.Stepwise regression showed that the only effecting fa ctor on dependency ratio of children and on total dependency ratio is birth rate .But the effecting factor on dependency ratio of elderly is indices of mean gro ss domestic product per person. Conclusion Aging of population in Hainan Province would not give great pressure on its soci ety and economics in the near future.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期323-325,共3页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
海南省统计局海南省人口普查资料课题研究项目
