摘要
本文将蒙特卡罗 ( Monte- Carlo)方法应用到吉林省白城地区年降水量预报工作中。把年降水量作为随机变量来处理。根据白城地区过去 40年降水资料 ,提取该地区年降水量变化所蕴含的随机性和统计规律性 ,这些属性表征了该地区年降水量变化的固有特征。根据这些特征 ,运用蒙特卡罗 ( Monte- Carlo)方法 ,并利用 VB语言编程 ,对该地区未来 2
This paper applies Monte-Carlo method to predict annual precipitation in Baicheng area. Annual rainfall is disposed as stochastic variable. The stochastic and statistic laws owned by annual precipitation variation of this area are extracted from the rainfall data in past 40 years, which indicate the essential characteristics of annual precipitation variation. According to these characteristics, the precipitation in Baicheng area in future 20 years is predicted by using Monte-Carlo method. In this course the VB language is utilized for compiling computer programme.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
2004年第4期144-146,共3页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金草地放牧系统的优化放牧理论 ( OFT)研究 ( 3 0 0 70 5 45)
关键词
蒙特卡罗方法
降水量
预测方法
吉林
s: Monte-Carlo
annual precipitation
prediction
Baicheng area
