摘要
2003年,全球石油化学工业开始复苏,石油公司利润大幅上升,化工公司毛利总水平仍在低位徘徊;世界乙烯净增能力创20年来的最低,中东成为乙烯产能增长最多的地区;亚洲地区石化产品需求持续增长,石化行业投资再度活跃;石化制造业出现由发达国家向发展中国家转移的倾向,中国和中东地区成为国际资本投资的热点;石化公司兼并重组以结构性调整为主,欧洲收购交易活跃。2003年,我国石化产品需求量继续攀升,主要石化产品产量再创记录,主要石化产品进口量继续大幅度增加;国家对石化产品进一步实施关税减让政策,同时,加强了市场监管力度;石化行业外商投资加快,民营石油石化企业异军突起。展望2004年,全球石化业将由复苏转为走强,装置开工率稳步提高,有更多的项目开工建设。中国高速增长的经济将是石化工业继续向上发展的主要动因。初步预测,2005年和2010年,我国乙烯需求量将分别达到1500万吨和2000万吨以上,乙烯生产能力将分别达到900万吨和1400万吨。
the global petrochemical industry started to revive in2003. The profits of oil companies increased dramaticallywhile those of chemical companies were maintained, but ata lower level. The net increase of ethylene productivity inthe world hit a record low in the last two decades. TheMiddle East saw the highest increase in the ethyleneproductivity. The demand for petrochemicals grew steadilyin Asia, with investment in the petrochemical industryT44becoming active again. There was a tendency to shift thepetrochemical manufacturing industry from developedcountries to developing countries. China and the MiddleEast became the hot spots for international investment. Themerging and restructuring of petrochemical companieswas focused on structural adjustment. Acquisitions wereactive in Europe, with the demand for key petrochemicalsclimbing. China’s production of key petrochemicals hit arecord high in 2003, while the import of key petrochemicalscontinued to rise considerably. The country implementedpolicies to further reduce the tariff on petrochemicals.Meanwhile, efforts were made to reinforce marketsupervision. Foreign investment in the petrochemicalindustry was accelerated, and private oil and petrochemicalenterprises flourished in the country. Looking ahead for2004, the global petrochemical industry is becoming strongerwith operating rate of existing facilities further raised andmore construction projects initiated. China’s rapideconomic growth is the engine propelling the continualdevelopment of petrochemical industry. Based onpreliminary predictions, China’s demand for ethylenewill reach 15 million tons by 2005 and exceed 20 milliontons by 2010, while ethylene production will reach 9million tons and 14 million tons over the same period.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2004年第5期44-47,61,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
