摘要
分析了辽宁省盘锦市2013年上半年的房地产市场发展概况;根据灰色系统理论构建GM(1,1)短期预测模型和精度检验模型;运用2009—2012年盘锦市房地产市场的房地产投资额、商品房销售面积和销售额三大经济指标年度数据与预测模型,对辽宁省盘锦市2013年下半年的房地产三大经济指标进行预测;经过精度检验,预测值误差等级达到Ⅰ级,验证了模型的可行性和结果的准确性;提出了盘锦市2013年下半年的房地产市场平稳发展的建议。
The article analyzes the overview of real estate market of the first half of 2013 in Panjin,Liaoning Province. Then the article builds the gray system theory GM( 1,1) short-term forecasting model and tests models accurately according to grey system theory. By using the data of the three major economic indicators of the real estate market of investment,sales area and sales figures of 2009—2012 into predictive models,the article predicts the data of second half of 2013. Through precise test,the error level gets to gradeⅠ. We can verify the feasibility and accuracy of the results of model. From the prediction results,the article proposes some policy recommendations to the second half of 2013 real estate market in Panjin.
出处
《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》
2014年第2期162-165,共4页
Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJC630122)
