摘要
研究了南京市2007年3月～2008年12月住宅一级市场(新房交易市场)、二级市场(存量房交易市场)和三级市场(租赁市场)之间价格的关系。通过对这段时间内的三级市场价格数据进行波动幅度分析、平稳性分析、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出了各数据序列的特性和序列间的数量关系。研究结果表明,南京市住宅三级市场、一级市场和二级市场的风险是逐渐降低的,三个住宅市场价格之间不存在长期稳定关系,但是滞后期数不同时,三个市场价格之间存在不同的因果关系,并且对以上实证检验的结果作出了解释。
This paper studies the relations among the prices of new houses market,the secondary market and rental market in Nanjing from March 2007 to December 2008 by econometric methods.By the analysis of the data of the three markets price fluctuations,the stability,cointegration test and Granger causality test,it obtains the characteristics of the three data sequences and the relations among them.The results show that the risk of the rental residential market,the primary and secondary market is reduced gradually.There is not long-term,stable relationship among three-grade residential market prices.When there are several different time lags,we can find different causal relationships among the three-grade market prices.Some interpretations are also provided.
出处
《建筑经济》
2009年第S2期126-130,共5页
Construction Economy
关键词
新房价格
二手房价格
租金
因果关系
new house price
second-hand housing price
rental housing price
causal relationship
