摘要
在我国三张投入产出基本表的基础上编制了包括43个行业的非竞争型投入产出表,建立了测算出口载电量的非竞争型投入产出模型。详细测算了我国1997、2002年以及2007—2010年的出口载电量,并就出口增速和出口结构变化对出口载电量的影响进行了敏感性分析。研究表明,加入WTO以后,我国出口载电量快速增加,到2007年达到10 102亿kW.h;2008—2010年,受国际经济危机影响,出口载电量增长明显放缓,2010年为10 582亿kW.h;我国出口增速下降1个百分点,导致出口载电量减少0.8%左右,全社会用电量增速减缓0.18～0.28个百分点。
An uncompetitive input-output table with 43 sectors is compiled according to three basic input-output tables published in China.An uncompetitive input-output model for analyzing embodied electricity in exports of China is established.The amounts of embodied electricity in China′s exports of year 1997,2002,and years from 2007 to 2010 are calculated based on the proposed model.The sensitivity analysis of impacts of exports change rate and structure change on embodied electricity is performed.The results show that the embodied electricity in exports of China grew rapidly after entry into WTO.It reached about 1 010.2 TWh in year 2007.For years from 2008 to 2010,the growth of embodied electricity slowed down apparently because of global economic crisis.The amount of embodied electricity was around 1 058.2 TWh in 2010.A decline of one percent on exports leads to 0.8 percent of embodied electricity decrease and a decrease of 0.18 to 0.28 percent of total electricity consumption growth.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期88-92,共5页
Electric Power
关键词
出口
载电量
非竞争型投入产出模型
敏感性分析
exports
embodied electricity
uncompetitive input-output model
sensitivity analysis
