摘要
掌握电力负荷特性的变化规律是建立负荷预测模型的关键。分形理论是近年来发展起来的新兴非线性系统理论,把分形理论应用于电力负荷特性的分析研究中,通过对电力系统负荷曲线进行分析,得出电力系统负荷变化具有一定的周期性规律。运用分形理论,分维数表明:相同空间状态下电力系统负荷具有自相似性;相同时间尺度下电力系统负荷具有自相似性,并对电力负荷分形特性的稳定性进行了论证,从而证明了分形理论应用于负荷预测的可行性和合理性,为将分形理论应用于电力系统负荷预测提供了理论依据。
Grasping the change of power load characteristic is the key to establish load forecasting model.Fractal theory is a non-linear system theory which has been developed in recent years,fractal theory have been applied to research of load characteristic.To analyses the loads curve of electrical power systems,the periodic law can be found from power loads variation.Through applying fractal theory to fractal dimension,the results indicate that power loads possess self-similarity in terms of same space state,same time scale,also proves the stability of the load fractal characteristic.Power loads curve is investigated and it is found that the power loads have the feasibility and rationality of applying fractal theory is proved.
出处
《电力学报》
2012年第3期181-185,共5页
Journal of Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目:基于协同知识挖掘的电力负荷预测理论研究(项目编号:70671039)
