摘要
本文在构建金融开放外源性风险体系基础上,应用"3δ"原理和偏最小二乘法对中国、东南亚和拉美等共26个国家的金融开放的外源性风险及其影响进行了分析,所得结果与26个国家的金融开放的实际十分吻合。研究表明"3δ"原理和偏最小二乘法在监测和分析发展中国家金融开放外源性风险产生的影响具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,为提高金融开放监管效率,提供了相应的方法依据。
Based on exogenous risk index system of caused by financial openness,this papers presents the measure of risk evaluation and forecast model of financial openness,and apply the partial least-squares regression to analyse the effect on the economic and fi-nancial stabilization and safety.by dint of those means,this papers use the financial open-ness practice in China to evalute the risk bank and forest the risk,then construe the infec-tion to the chinese economic and financial stabilization and safety.The research result shows that the risk bank brought from financial openness is to be safe,but the inflow rate of FDI、the extral capital inflow、Short-Term Debt and Short-Term Capital Net have caused impaction on the chinese economic and financial stabilization and safety.To compare with the impaction of the financial openness pactice in Latin America and Southeast Asia areas,let us to recognize clearly the complicacy of risk caused by the financial opennsess.so to changing the supervision conception and adjust the system to adapt for the new requirement of financial openness.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期30-44,共15页
Nankai Economic Studies
关键词
金融开放
外源性风险
风险评估
稳定与安全
Financial Openness
Exogenous Risk
Risk Evaluation
Stabilization and Safety
