摘要
Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.
本文利用土地生产模型基于人口增长率、国民生产总值增长率和农业生产率的增长率来 预测尼泊尔国家,Chitwan地区,Jutpani村的森林破坏的面积与趋势。在研究中如果上述各项 增长率保持目前水平不变，通过土地生产模型的模拟，研究区域的所有林业用地将以每年24 %的速率在2038年全部变为农业用地；假设自给作物生产率每年按1%增长，经济作物按2%增 长，则每年林业用地转换为农业用地的速率降低为17%，但到2038年可能只留有124公顷的森 林。因此农业生产率是影响森林破坏的主要因素，加强农业管理极为重要。
