摘要
四川省的耕地地力以土壤质量系数衡量,多数在0 70以下。按耕地最大生产潜力计算,以线性模型和指数模型预测耕地和人口,在2040年后,四川省的粮食产量与人口需求间将出现亏缺,预计分别缺口粮食523 7024×107kg和168 4425×107kg,那时四川将超载人口386 34万人至1201 20万人。按耕地现实粮食生产力(单产)计算的四川省耕地承载力,从2000年后,出现粮食缺口和人口超载。预计未来50年,粮食亏缺将在887 4259×107kg至2982 2803×107kg,人口超载达2035 4万人至6840 1万人。表明四川省的耕地超载,耕地粮食形势不容乐观。并依此提出了相应的对策和建议。
Cropland potential productivity in Sichuan province was estimated by soil quality index.Most soil quality index was less than 0.70.The climate-soil productive potentiality of Sichuan was 10.7×10^(10)kg and 69.8×10~9kg with the area cited from the second time general investigation of soil resource of China and statistics of 2001, respectively.According to the Climate-soil productive potentiality of Sichuan,the food supply would fail to meet the peoples need and lack 52.4×10~7kg and 16.8×10~8?kg using the li...
出处
《西南农业学报》
CSCD
2003年第S1期15-18,共4页
Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX2 SW 319)
农业部全国耕地地力评价项目资助
关键词
耕地地力
土壤质量系数
粮食生产潜力
人口承载力
四川省
arable land
index of soil quality
cropland potential productivity
supporting capacity
Sichuan
