摘要
我国货币政策框架正逐步由数量型的调节货币供给向价格型的利率调整转变,顺畅的利率传导机制是价格型调控政策发挥作用的基本条件.本文通过运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,研究利率双轨制下货币政策传导方式及政策效果.研究表明,双轨制下货币政策通过基准利率和市场利率同时作用于银行系统,对银行资产配置行为和利率定价行为产生影响,进而影响实体经济.利率双轨对贷款投放负向影响较大,对银行持有无风险债券影响较小,贷款变动对GDP有负向影响.应从构建市场化基准利率体系、完善利率走廊机制、提升实体企业利率敏感性等方面深化利率市场化改革.
China's monetary policy framework is gradually changing from quantitative regulation of money supply to price based interest rate adjustment.A smooth interest rate transmission mechanism is the basic condition for the price based regulation policy to play a role.Based on the review of the research results of the dual-track system of interest rates at home and abroad,this paper use structure vector autoregression(SVAR)model to study the transmission mode and policy effect of monetary policy under the two-track system of interest rates.The research shows that under the dualtrack system,the monetary policy ACTS on the banking system through the benchmark interest rate and the market interest rate at the same time,and has an impact on the asset allocation behavior and interest rate pricing behavior of Banks,thus affecting the real economy.The dual regulation of interest rate has a greater negative impact on loan issuance,a smaller impact on Banks'holding of risk-free bonds,and loan changes have a negative impact on GDP.We should deepen the reform of interest rate liberalization in building a market-based benchmark interest rate system,improve the interest rate corridor mechanism and enhance the interest rate sensitivity of real enterprises.
作者
程晋鲁
Cheng Jinlu(Jinan Branch of the People’s Bank of China,Jinan ShanDong 250021)
出处
《西部金融》
2021年第8期22-29,共8页
West China Finance
关键词
双轨制
利率传导机制
货币政策
利率市场化
the dual-track system of interest rates
interest rates transmission mechanics
SVAR model
作者简介
程晋鲁(1989-),男,山东临沂人,硕士,经济师,现供职于中国人民银行济南分行。
