摘要
为有效判断淤地坝在临发暴雨中溃坝风险等级,指导淤地坝安全运行及决策。文中于2020~2021年对甘肃省庆阳、平凉、定西的淤地坝建设现状及在运行、管理、实时预警等方面的科学问题进行研究。结果显示:1)风险指标体系各判断矩阵一致性检验CR值均小于0.1,权重修正值变化范围个别超出30%,指标体系判断矩阵赋值精准合理。2)淤地坝溃坝主要影响因子排序为:最高洪水位>有无溢洪道>剩余淤积年限>基础防渗质量>有无责任人>有无预警系统>淤积库容>坝体变形>坝基渗漏。3)溃坝风险主要集中在暴雨历时前2h,需要及时泄洪。2h到6h溃坝风险降低,仍需警惕溃坝,6h之后不存在溃坝风险。4)暴雨预警模型层次清晰,结构科学可行,架构明确,输出等级合理,可为临发暴雨中溃坝风险的评价提供实时预警数据。
To effectively determine the risk level of silt dam failure in temporary rainstorms and guide the safe operation and decision making of silt dams,this study was conducted from 2020 to 2021 to investigate the current status of silt dam construction and scientific issues in operation,management,and real-time warning in Qingyang,Pingliang,and Dingxi of Gansu province.The results show that:1)The consistency test values of each judgment matrix of the risk index system are less than 0.1,and the range of changes in the weight revision value individually exceeds 30%,and the judgment matrix of the index system is assigned precisely and reasonably.2)The main impact factors of silt dam failure are ranked as follows:maximum flood level>with or without spillway>remaining siltation years>foundation impermeability quality>with or without responsible person>with or without warning system>siltation reservoir capacity>dam deformation>dam base leakage.3)The risk of dam failure is mainly concentrated in the first 2 h of the rainstorm calendar,which requires timely flooding.In period of 2 h to 6 h,the risk of dam failure decreases,it still needs to be alert to dam failure,after 6 h there is no risk of dam failure.4)The storm warning model is scientific and feasible,with a clear hierarchy,a clear architecture and reasonable output levels,which can provide real-time warning data for the evaluation of the risk of dam failure in an imminent rainstorm.
作者
吕彦勋
马瑞
张富
周波
王玲莉
LV Yanxun;MA Rui;ZHANG Fu;ZHOU Bo;WANG Lingli(College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070;Gansu Water Conservancy Research Institute,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期90-99,共10页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
甘肃省水利科技项目(甘水建管发[2021]71号)资助
关键词
临发暴雨
淤地坝
溃坝风险
层次分析法
预警模型
temporary rainstorms
warping dam
dam failure risk
hierarchical analysis method
early warning mode
作者简介
吕彦勋(1996-),男,甘肃环县人,硕士研究生,主要从事水土保持研究。E-mail:909846225@qq.com;通讯作者:马瑞(1977-),女,甘肃平凉人,博士,教授,主要从事水土保持研究。E-mail:mr031103@126.com
