摘要
近两年,国内外天然气价格波动出现明显上升,中国天然气行业在进口价格的传导作用下,稳定发展面临挑战,企业经营管理困难。选取近5年美国亨利港天然气期货价格、欧洲荷兰TTF天然气期货价格、LNG亚洲到岸评估价、中国LNG进口月均价,分析天然气价格年度波动率、波动幅度、均价变化,以及价格波动对中国天然气行业稳定发展的影响。天然气价格波动风险影响因素主要包括突发事件、异常天气和库存水平。建议加快国内天然气稳定供应能力建设,增加国际天然气采购时的议价筹码;提升主动管理天然气价格的水平,运用期货与衍生品工具锁定目标价格;加快储运调节等基础设施建设,把握价格波动的机会;健全兜底保障体系,防止恐慌性价格偏离。
In the past two years,the price fluctuation of natural gas at home and abroad has increased significantly.Under the conduction of import price,China’s natural gas industry faces challenges in stable development and difficulties in business management.The paper analyzes the annual volatility,fluctuation range,average price change,and their impacts for China’s natural gas stable development by selecting Henry Hub natural gas futures price in the United States,Dutch TTF natural gas futures price in Europe,LNG Asia DES Assessment price,and monthly average price of LNG import in China in recent 5 years.The risk factors of natural gas fluctuation mainly include emergencies,abnormal weather,and inventory level.It is suggested to speed up the construction of stable domestic natural gas supply capacity to increase bargaining power in international natural gas purchases,improve the level of price active management to lock in the target price by using futures and derivatives tools,accelerate the consolidation of storage and transportation regulation infrastructure to grasp the opportunities of price fluctuation,and improve the security guarantee system to prevent panic price deviation.
作者
程民贵
CHENG Mingui(Shanghai International Energy Exchange)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2022年第8期51-57,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
天然气行业
稳定发展
资源池
价格管理
期货市场
现货市场
natural gas industry
stable development
resource pool
price management
futures market
spot market
