摘要
均衡度是区域物流体系均衡运行的固有特征值,其数值及变化态势有助于分析与预测区域物流体系运行趋势。鉴于实践中物流体系均衡度是物流均衡、物流基础和物流效益三方面数值累加的结果,为能够充分揭示区域物流体系均衡度变化的特征,提出了由移动平均控制、指数加权移动平均(EWMA)控制、广义方差控制和多变量EWMA控制构成的多变异源的预警分析方法。在具体应用案例中,结合沈阳区域物流体系2011年—2018年的状态数据,借助Minitab18.0软件工具进行具体的测算,依照测算得出控制图及控制图判据理论,给出区域物流体系均衡状态及发展态势,同时根据出现的奇异点,提出相应的预警策略建议,为相关管理部门及行业企业提供决策依据。
The equilibrium degree was the inherent characteristic value of the regional logistics system while balanced operating,and its value and change situation could help to analyse and predict the operation trend of regional logistics system.In practice,the equilibrium degree of logistics system was the numerical accumulation result of logistics equilibrium,logistics foundation and logistics benefit.In order to fully reveal the change characteristics of the equilibrium degree,the early warning analysis method of variable and heterogeneous sources was proposed,which was composed of moving average control,exponentially weighted moving average control,generalized variance control and multivariable EWMA control.In the specific application case,combined with the state data of Shenyang regional logistics system from 2011 to 2018,with the help of Minitab18.0 software tool,the specific calculation was carried out.According to the control chart and control chart criterion theory,the balanced state and development trend of regional logistics system can be obtained.At the same time,according to the singularity,the corresponding early warning strategy suggestions and decision-making basis were proposed for the relevant management departments and industry enterprises.
作者
殷艳娜
徐剑
温馨
YIN Yanna;XU Jian;WEN Xin(School of Management,Shenyang University of Technology,Shenyang,Liaoning 110870,China)
出处
《工业工程与管理》
北大核心
2022年第1期124-131,共8页
Industrial Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71402104)
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L19BJY037)
关键词
物流体系均衡度
EWMA控制图
预警分析
多变异源
equilibrium degree of logistics system
EWMA control chart
early warning analysis
diverse sources
作者简介
殷艳娜(1980—),女,辽宁葫芦岛人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为物流管理与工程。E-mail:yinyanna2013@126.com。
