摘要
为得到遵义市年暴雨和大暴雨次数概率特征,利用遵义市行政辖区内12个国家气象站1961-2020年逐日降水数据,统计出各站暴雨、大暴雨频次,结合Poisson分布函数,得到年暴雨、大暴雨频次分布模型,计算理论年频次。结果表明:遵义市整体区域年大暴雨次数、各县市区暴雨次数都符合Poisson分布模式;遵义市整体区域每年≥3次以上大暴雨的概率为0.62;各县市区每年≥2次以上暴雨的概率在0.56~0.77,概率总趋势表现出自东向西减小,但西北部赤水、习水例外。东部、西北部概率较大,因而暴雨灾害风险较大;中部概率相对较小,因而暴雨灾害风险相对较小。利用Poisson分布模式,还可以用于计算遵义市(各县市区)大于研究时段长度(60 a)出现的最大次数以上的大暴雨(暴雨)次数概率,对制定暴雨洪涝灾害防御规划、应急管理工作具有实际意义。
To obtain the characteristics of the number of times and probability of rainstorm and torrential rain in Zunyi,the daily precipitation data of 12 national meteorological stations in the administrative jurisdiction of Zunyi from 1961 to2020 was used for statistics of the frequency of rainstorms and torrential rain of each station.Combined with the Poisson distribution function,the annual frequency distribution model of rainstorms and torrential rain was obtained and the theoretical annual frequency was calculated on this basis.The results showed that the annual number of torrential rain in the whole area of Zunyi and the number of counties and the urban area both complied with the Poisson distribution model.The probability of torrential rain equal to or greater than 3 times/a in the whole area of Zunyi was 0.62.The probability of rainstorms equal to or greater than 2 times/a in counties and the urban area was 0.56-0.77.The general trend of the probability was that it decreased from the east to the west,except Chishui and Xishui in the northwest.The probability in the east and northwest was relatively high.Therefore,the risk of the rainstorm disaster was relatively greater.The probability in the middle was relatively low,so the risk of the rainstorm disaster was relatively small.The Poisson distribution model established in this study can be also used to calculate the number of times and probability of torrential rain(rainstorm)greater than the maximum number of occurrences longer than the study phase(60 a)in Zunyi(all areas).It has practical significance for the development of the prevention plan of rainstorm and flood disaster and emergency management work.
作者
邹德全
邹承立
宋鑫民
田洪进
张云秋
张开华
ZOU Dequan;ZOU Chengli;SONG Xinmin;TIAN Hongjin;ZHANG Yunqiu;ZHANG Kaihua(Zunyi Meteorological Bureau,Zunyi 563000,China)
出处
《成都信息工程大学学报》
2022年第6期716-720,共5页
Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology
关键词
大气科学
暴雨
遵义市
泊松分布
概率特征
atmospheric science
rainstorm
Zunyi city
Poisson distribution
probability characteristics
