摘要
准确估计海平面变化是海洋科学和气候研究中的关键挑战,传统的海平面变化估计方法忽略了有色噪声和随机模型的影响。为进一步提高海平面变化的确定精度,该文采用PCA主成分分析方法对美国东海岸区域26个验潮站的海面高序列进行降噪处理分析。实验结果表明:经过主成分分析法降噪后,海平面速度变化较小,保留了原始序列趋势速度特性,但速度不确定度值变小(降低约0.10~0.20mm/a),说明该方法可以有效提高海平面变化速度的确定精度。在广义高斯-马尔科夫模型(GGM)、自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA)以及分形自回归聚合滑动平均模型(ARFIMA)3种随机噪声模型假设下,海平面速度差值的平均值约为0.01~0.04mm/a,速度不确定度差值的平均值约为0.02~0.14mm/a,表明随机噪声模型对海平面速度参数估计的影响较小。
Accurately estimating sea level changes is a key challenge in marine science and climate research,as traditional methods for estimating sea level changes overlook the influence of colored noise and random models.To further improve the accuracy of determining sea level changes,this paper uses PCA principal component analysis method to denoise and analyze the sea surface height sequences of 26tidal stations in the East Coast region of the United States.The experimental results show that after noise reduction using principal component analysis,the sea level velocity changes slightly,retaining the trend velocity characteristics of the original sequence.However,the uncertainty value of the velocity decreases(by about 0.10~0.20mm/a),indicating that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of determining the speed of sea level change.Under three random noise model assumptions,namely the Generalized Gaussian Markov Model(GGM),Autoregressive Moving Average Model(ARMA),and Fractal Autoregressive Aggregated Moving Average Model(ARFIMA),the average difference in sea level velocity is about 0.01~0.04mm/a,and the average difference in velocity uncertainty is about 0.02~0.14mm/a,indicating that the random noise model has a relatively small impact on the estimation of sea level velocity parameters.
作者
黄佳慧
贺小星
胡顺强
龚华博
HUANG Jiahui;HE Xiaoxing;HU Shunqiang;GONG Huabo(School of Civil Engineering and Surveying&Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000,China;School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330022,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China)
出处
《测绘科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期10-19,共10页
Science of Surveying and Mapping
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42364002)
江西省主要学科学术和技术带头人培养计划项目(20225BCJ23014)
江西省2023年度研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2023-S645)
关键词
海平面变化
验潮站
主成分分析
速度估计
速度不确定度
sea-level change
tide gauge
principal component analysis
trend estimation
trend uncertainty
作者简介
黄佳慧(2001—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为海平面变化监测、北斗/GNSS数据处理。E-mail:hjh@mail.jxust.edu.cn;通信作者:贺小星,副教授,E-mail:labofsgre@gmail.com
