摘要
国家生态文明建设背景下,生态系统的承载力研究是探索可持续发展的新方向.该文选择扎龙湿地为研究区,以遥感影像、气象数据及社会经济数据为基础,建立压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的指标体系,运用模糊综合评价算法对扎龙湿地的生态承载力进行评价;其次,借助障碍度模型,探讨扎龙湿地生态承载力演变的主要障碍因素;最后利用GM模型,预测其未来9年的生态承载力结果.结果表明:扎龙湿地生态承载系统一直处于中承载状态,但总体呈上升趋势;自然环境和地物覆盖2个因素层为制约生态承载力的主要因素.根据GM预测结果,未来9年,扎龙湿地生态承载力指数随年份增加而升高,生态状况持续向良性转化,符合可持续发展理念.
Under the background of national ecological civilization construction,the study on carrying capacity of ecosystem is a new direction to explore sustainable development.In this paper,Zhalong Wetland is selected as the research area,and the index system of pressure-state-response(PSR)model is established based on remote sensing images、meteorological data and socioeconomic data,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is used to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of Zhalong Wetland.Secondly,with the help of obstacle degree model,the main obstacle factors of Zhalong Wetland ecological carrying capacity are discussed.Finally,the GM model is used to predict its ecological carrying capacity in the next 9 years.The results show that:the ecological carrying system of Zhalong Wetland is always in the medium carrying state,but the overall trend is on the rise.Natural environment and ground cover are the main factors that restrict ecological carrying capacity.According to GM prediction results,in the next 9 years,Zhalong Wetland ecological carrying capacity index will increase with the increase of years,ecological status will continue to be benign transformation,and actively respond to the national ecological civilization construction and sustainable development concept.
作者
孔子强
张玉红
Kong Ziqiang;Zhang Yuhong(Harbin Normal University,Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing monitoring of Geographic Environment)
出处
《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》
CAS
2022年第1期54-62,共9页
Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(D2018001)
关键词
扎龙湿地
生态承载力
PSR模型
障碍度
Zhalong Wetland
Ecological carrying capacity
PSR model
Obstacle degree
作者简介
通讯作者:张玉红
