摘要
基于沈阳市统计预报中逐步回归及简易逐步回归模型,利用2017年环境空气主要污染物自动监测实况数据,采用相关系数、标准化平均偏差等指标检验2种模型的预报效果。结果显示:逐步回归及简易逐步回归模式均能够较好的表征污染变化趋势,2种预报模式预报对AQI均表现出春夏季优于秋冬季特点。逐步回归、简易逐步回归模式24 h预报效果优于48和72 h。其中简易逐步回归模式24 h级别准确率达到67%。
Based on the stepwise regression model and simple stepwise regression model,the statistical prediction results of Shenyang were tested by the correlation coefficient and the standardized average deviation with the automatic monitoring data of main pollutants in the ambient air in 2017.The results showed that the stepwise regression model and the simple stepwise regression model could effectively characterize the change trend of the pollution.The prediction by the two models also showed that the air quality index(AQI)in spring and summer was better than that in autumn and winter.The prediction result in 24 h for both stepwise regression model and simple stepwise regression model was better than that in 48 h and 72 h.The prediction accuracy rate by the simple stepwise regression model in 24 h achieved 67%.
作者
于晓东
纪欣彤
王闯
YU Xiaodong;JI Xintong;WANG Chuang(Shenyang Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shenyang 110167,China;Shenyang Environmental Monitoring Center,Shenyang 110167,China)
出处
《环境保护科学》
CAS
2020年第4期107-112,共6页
Environmental Protection Science
关键词
逐步回归
环境空气质量预报
准确率
沈阳市
Stepwise Regression
Prediction of Ambient Air Quality
Accuracy Rate
Shenyang
作者简介
于晓东(1985−),男,硕士、工程师。研究方向:环境科研、医疗废物处理与处置。E-mail:yuxiaodong@syhky.com
