摘要
义乌·中国小商品指数客观反映实物商品贸易动态,成为世界小商品市场的价格“风向标”,义乌·中国小商品指数走势在一定程度上反映了国际通胀水平,加强对其走势监测具有积极意义。本文探究义乌·中国小商品指数对全球经贸环境的敏感度和影响力,选取义乌小商品价格指数、义乌小商品景气指数和亚太经合组织成员居民消费价格指数,构建VAR模型进行研究,结果表明:义乌小商品价格指数对文莱、智利、新加坡和秘鲁居民消费价格指数具有显著正向影响,对美国居民消费价格指数具有显著负向影响;义乌小商品景气指数对中国、智利、墨西哥和泰国居民消费价格指数具有显著正向影响;义乌小商品价格指数、景气指数与经合组织其余国家(地区)居民消费价格指数之间不存在明显相关关系。基于此,应加大义乌指数监测力度、加强各国之间经贸交流、优化义乌指数编制流程,不断提高其影响力。
The Yiwu China Commodity Index objectively reflects the trade dynamics of physical commodities and becomes a price"vane"in the world small commodity market.The trend of the Yiwu China Commodity Index to a certain extent reflects the international inflation level,thus strengthening its trend monitoring is of positive significance.This article explores the sensitivity and impact of the Yiwu China Commodity Index on the global economic and trade environment.It selects the Yiwu Commodity Price Index,the Yiwu Commodity Prosperity Index,and the APEC member consumer price index to construct a VAR model for research.The results show that the Yiwu Commodity Price Index has a significant positive impact on the consumer price indexes of Brunei,Chile,Singapore and Peru,while it has a significant negative impact on the consumer price index of the United States;The Yiwu Commodity Prosperity Index has a significant positive impact on the consumer price indexes of China,Chile,Mexico and Thailand;There is no significant correlation between Yiwu commodity price index,prosperity index,and the consumer price index of the other APEC countries(regions).Based on this,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of Yiwu Index,strengthen economic and trade exchanges among countries,optimize the preparation process of Yiwu Index,and continuously improve its influence.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第8期67-71,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“股票市场国际板的效应与风险研究”(71871205)
作者简介
通讯作者:易荣华
