摘要
石油天然气是我国重要的战略物资。在全球百年未有之大变局形势下,加大油气开发是我国能源安全之重,作为油气开发的开路先锋,油气勘探行业的发展是关键前提。本文主要分析国际原油价格对油气勘探行业的影响,采用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)进行分析,研究结果表明:滞后1期国际原油价格与全球油气勘探投资同方向变化,如何做好国际原油价格动态监测是我国油气勘探公司参与海外勘探市场布局的关键;国际原油价格持续下降时,导致全球勘探业务量缩减,加剧国内勘探行业竞争程度,拉低勘探行业整体景气度;国际原油价格持续上升时,减缓国内勘探行业竞争程度,带动勘探行业整体景气度。基于此,应加强国际原油价格监测预测,积极稳妥开拓海外勘探市场,以促进我国油气勘探行业高质量发展、保障我国能源安全。
Oil and gas are important strategic material in China.Under the unprecedented global upheaval in a century,increasing oil and gas production development is the top priority for China's energy security,and as a pioneer in oil and gas development,the development of the oil and gas exploration industry is a key prerequisite.This paper mainly analyzes the impact of international crude oil prices on the oil and gas exploration industry,using the Vector autoregression(VAR model)to analyze,the research results indicate that delayed Phase 1 International crude oil prices and global oil and gas exploration investment changes in the same direction.How to dynamically monitor international crude oil prices is the key for Chinese oil and gas exploration companies to participate in overseas exploration market layout.When international crude oil prices continue to decline,it leads to a reduction in global exploration business volume,exacerbates competition in the domestic exploration industry,and lowers the overall prosperity of the exploration industry.When international crude oil prices continue to rise,it slows down the level of competition in the domestic exploration industry and drives the overall prosperity of the exploration industry.Based on this,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and prediction of international crude oil prices,actively and steadily explore overseas exploration markets,in order to promote the high-quality development of China's oil and gas exploration industry and ensure China's energy security.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2023年第4期118-121,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
国际原油价格
油气勘探
油气勘探投资
VAR模型
international crude oil price
oil and gas exploration
investment in oil and gas exploration
VAR model
