摘要
随着我国双碳目标的提出,传统能源现代化转型迫在眉睫,而鲜见农村综合能源系统可持续发展方面评估。提出一种基于博弈论改进综合赋权及模糊灰色关联投影排序的多准则决策分析(MCDA)框架,用于评估农村综合能源系统的可持续发展潜力。首先构建涵盖技术、经济、环保、社会效益和资源利用5个维度的农村综合能源多准则综合评估指标体系,确定各指标的计算方法,随后基于博弈论改进综合赋权法确定指标权重。最后采用模糊灰色关联投影排序法进行方案优选排序。为验证提出框架的有效性,以浙江省某农村综合能源系统工程为例,对提出的3种农村综合能源系统规划方案的可持续性进行评估和验证。结果表明,该框架能科学评价农村综合能源系统可持续性。
With China′s"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"goals,it′s urgent to shift energy utilization to clean and low carbon,and the rural integrated energy system(RIES)sustainable development evaluation is a blank research field.A multi-criteria decision-analysis(MCDA)framework based on Game Theory(GT)was proposed to improve the combination weighting and fuzzy grey relational projection method(FGRP)to evaluate the sustainable development potential of RIES.Firstly,a synthetical muti-criteria system of RIES from the perspective of technology,economy,social benefits,environmental protection,and resource utilization was propose,and the calculation method of each index was determined.Secondly,the modified comprehensive weighting method based on Game Theory was adopted to determine the index weights.Finally,the optimal sorting of schemes was carried out with FGRP.To validate the efficiency of the proposed framework,a rural integrated energy system project in Zhejiang Province was treated as a case to evaluate and verify the sustainability of three proposed rural integrated energy system planning schemes.The results demonstrate that the framework can realize the scientific evaluation of the sustainability of rural integrated energy systems.
作者
杜若芸
牛东晓
余敏
周培焱
DU Ruoyun;NIU Dongxiao;YU Min;ZHOU Peiyan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development,Beijing 102206,China;School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《洁净煤技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第S02期580-588,共9页
Clean Coal Technology
基金
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关资助项目(18JZD032)
高等学校学科创新引智计划“中国绿色电力发展研究学科创新引智基地”资助项目(B18021)
关键词
农村综合能源系统
层次分析法
熵权法
博弈论
模糊灰色关联投影排序法
rural integrated energy system
AHP
Entropy Weight Method
Game Theory
Fuzzy Grey Correlation Projection Sort Method
作者简介
杜若芸(1999—),女,黑龙江富锦人,博士研究生。E-mail:d18745412321@163.com;通讯作者:余敏(1996—),女,陕西安康人,博士研究生。E-mail:ncepuym@163.com
